October 03, 2018

“A mind that is stretched by a new experience can never go back to its old dimensions.”
– Oliver Wendell Holmes


  • Home prices are high. Affordability is falling. Housing starts and sales are slowing.

  • Mortgage delinquencies continue trending downward, and are at the lowest level in a decade.

  • Current 30-year fixed mortgage rates are in the 4.5% range – up about 1% since 2016, but below the 20-year average of about 5.4%.

  • We believe that the economy can digest wage growth of about 3.5% without meaningfully cutting into corporate profit margins

  • To the extent all of these tariffs actually go into place, we would expect the real economic effects to increase somewhat gradually but eventually become meaningful – dampen capital expenditure, dampen consumer sentiment, and raise prices.

Download and read the October Outlook for Financial Markets to learn more. 

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